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His overall approval rating has slipped below 40%, young voters are fleeing, and the voters who put him back in office are having second thoughts. Yet President Donald Trump just knocked out one of his loudest congressional critics in the most expensive House primary in American history. How does a president hemorrhaging public support keep tightening his grip on an entire political party? The answer lies in who is still with him, and who still fears him.
This article was created with the assistance of AI and reviewed by our editorial team for accuracy and clarity.
A Party Purged, One by One
May 2026 has functioned as a political reckoning for Republicans who crossed Trump. Former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein ousted Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky in one of the most expensive House primaries in history. Trump’s political machine also blocked Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict him during his 2021 impeachment trial, from advancing in the Louisiana primary. Five Indiana state senators who defied Trump’s redistricting demands were also defeated earlier in May.
The Massie Case
Thomas Massie was not a minor figure. He had been entrenched in his deep-red Kentucky district since 2012, and his feud with Trump grew from disputes over the Jeffrey Epstein files, the war with Iran, and Trump’s signature tax legislation. Trump personally called him a “Third Rate Congressman” and demanded his removal. Gallrein won with 54% of the Republican primary vote, ending a 14-year congressional career. For Republicans watching from Washington, the lesson was difficult to ignore.
Raffensperger’s Costly Stand
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger became nationally known in 2020 for refusing to help Trump overturn the state’s presidential election results. He spent millions of his own money trying to reintroduce himself to Republican voters by highlighting his long career in conservative politics before his break with Trump. It was not enough. He finished decisively behind candidates who had questioned or denied the 2020 election outcome, underscoring how thoroughly Trump has reshaped the Republican Party’s definition of loyalty.
The Numbers That Should Scare Republicans
Trump’s aggregate approval rating has dropped below 40% for the first time in his second term, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report — a significant warning for every Republican seeking office in November. Historically, a president’s approval rating is the single most reliable predictor of how his party performs in midterm elections. Public approval for his handling of inflation stands at just 30%, the overall economy at 37%, and health care at 29%. Those are not the numbers of a comfortable midterm environment.
Gen Z’s Sharp Reversal
Trump won over more young voters in 2024 than in either of his two previous campaigns, but Gen Z has since turned sharply against him, with his net approval among the group dropping 42% in roughly a year. His approval rating among 18-to-29-year-olds now stands at 32%, and young men in that cohort now prefer Democratic control of Congress by a 12-point margin, according to the Harvard Youth Poll. Economic anxiety and opposition to the war with Iran are driving much of the shift.
Latino Voters Pull Back
Hispanic voters were a cornerstone of Trump’s 2024 coalition. Among Latinos, his net approval has dropped 16 points since he took office, and his approval rating among Hispanic Trump voters has declined 27 points since early 2025, compared with a 14-point drop among white Trump voters. The swing carries real electoral weight in competitive fall races in Texas and Florida. Independents have shifted even more sharply, with Trump now trailing among independents by 41 points — voters who typically decide close elections.
The Base That Holds
Despite the erosion, the core of Trump’s Republican support remains intact. His approval rating among fellow Republicans averages 81% — lower than the 94% who voted for him in 2024, but still higher than Barack Obama or George W. Bush were rated by their own party members at a comparable point in their presidencies. White evangelical Protestants remain especially loyal. That foundation is precisely what allows Trump to move primary voters against dissenters, even as his broader numbers continue to slide.
Fear as a Political Tool
A veteran Republican strategist described Massie’s defeat as “a revenge tour on a solid conservative vote who refused to break to the will of Trump.” Massie himself had warned that his result would determine whether others followed his lead, describing the GOP as a herd that moves together. That dynamic is the engine behind Trump’s primary power. Even Republicans skeptical of his direction understand that defiance carries a steep price, regardless of what national approval polls show. Compliance is rational when the base decides primaries.
Two Clocks, One Party
Trump controls the Republican Party through primary elections, which are decided by loyal base voters, while his national numbers are driven by a much broader electorate. Those two clocks are running at different speeds. The results for Raffensperger and Massie may remind Republicans of the risks of pushing back, keeping dissent quiet for now. But with the midterms approaching and approval ratings still falling among key voter groups, the question is whether silence inside the party will be enough to survive the verdict outside it.