Tariff Refunds Are Here, But Experts Say Consumers May Be Left Out

The U.S. government began accepting tariff refund claims on April 20, opening a portal for businesses to recover money paid under tariffs the Supreme Court struck down in February. More than $160 billion is on the table for roughly 300,000 importers, but economists and even administration officials are already tempering expectations that the money will make its way to everyday shoppers.

A New Portal Is Processing Refund Claims

The refund system, called the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries, or CAPE, has gone live. Rather than requiring businesses to apply for each entry individually, CAPE processes claims as a single lump sum, which Customs and Border Protection says should make things more efficient. Approved applicants can expect payment, plus applicable interest, within 60 to 90 days.

Big Retailers Stand to Recover Billions

The refunds are not evenly distributed. Citi analysts estimate Walmart could recover around $10.2 billion, with Target in line for roughly $2.2 billion and Nike for $1 billion. Smaller amounts are expected for retailers like Gap, Kohl’s, and Home Depot. Walmart CFO John Rainey said he does not expect the process to move quickly, and that any refunds received would show up in the company’s financials rather than in stores.

Small Businesses Are Getting a Mixed Experience

Not everyone found the process smooth. Aaron Powell, founder of electric bike company Bunch Bikes, said he navigated the CAPE portal within minutes of it opening and plans to file for around $120,000. Rick Woldenberg, CEO of educational toy maker Learning Resources and the executive whose lawsuit led to the Supreme Court ruling, reported an error message telling him to try again due to high volume.

Refunds May Not Translate to Lower Prices

Economists are skeptical that the refunds will benefit consumers. UBS chief economist Paul Donovan wrote that a rush to lower prices for consumers seems unlikely, and Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation, told the New York Times he does not expect firms to feel an immediate urge to pass refunds along to shoppers, largely because most businesses expect new tariffs to follow.

Goldman Sachs Says Inflation Pressure Remains

Goldman Sachs analysts noted in February that consumer prices are unlikely to fall anytime soon. The firm estimated that tariffs added 0.7% to inflation over the previous 10 months and are projected to push costs up by another 0.1% in 2026. The analysts also pointed out that companies tend to lower prices far more slowly than they raise them, making near-term price relief unlikely for most households.

The Government Does Not Expect Consumers to Benefit

Administration officials have not shied away from the subject. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer urged businesses receiving a “windfall” refund to direct the money toward worker bonuses rather than price cuts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was more direct in February, saying of American consumers, “I got a feeling the American people won’t see it.”

A Few Companies Have Pledged to Pass Savings Along

Costco CEO Ron Vachris said in March the company would channel tariff refunds into “lower prices and better values” for customers, though he acknowledged at the time that future tariff impacts remained “extremely fluid.” FedEx also announced it would issue refunds to shippers and consumers who originally paid tariff charges. Both companies are among those that sued the federal government to recover duties already paid.

Consumers Are Turning to Lawsuits

With few businesses committing to share refunds, some consumers are filing class-action lawsuits. Federal cases have been brought against Ray-Ban maker EssilorLuxottica and FedEx, despite FedEx having pledged refunds to affected shippers. A class-action suit was also filed against Costco in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington, arguing that businesses that passed tariff costs onto customers should return any refunds they receive.

For Many, the Wait Continues

Lamp maker Sue Johnson, who saw her material costs double after Trump’s tariffs, told the BBC she expects no relief. “Maybe they’ll get repaid, but I have no hope they’re going to refund me,” she said. For now, businesses may recover what they paid, but shoppers who absorbed higher prices along the way have no direct path to getting that money back.