Major Airlines Are Canceling Flights Worldwide as Jet Fuel Costs Spiral Out of Control

Nineteen of the world’s 20 largest airlines are cutting flights in May. That figure comes from aviation analytics firm Cirium, which found that planned global capacity for May has already dropped three percentage points since early March. Cirium has revised its earlier prediction of 4% to 6% growth for the year, saying capacity could now decline by up to 3% under some scenarios. The driving force behind the cuts is jet fuel, which has doubled in price to nearly $200 a barrel since the start of the Iran conflict, making dozens of routes financially impossible to operate.

The supply situation is adding pressure on top of the cost problem. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, told the Associated Press on April 16 that Europe has roughly six weeks of jet fuel remaining. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, said the following day that flight cancellations in Europe due to lack of jet fuel could begin by the end of May, and that shortages are “already happening in parts of Asia.” The European Union’s transport commissioner pushed back, stating that cancellations so far are linked to cost, not physical shortages. Both things can be true simultaneously, and the distinction matters less to travelers whose flights are disappearing either way.

For American travelers with international plans this summer, the disruptions are not abstract. Airlines serving transatlantic and transpacific routes are cutting schedules, raising fares, and adding fuel surcharges that are reshaping the cost of a ticket purchased just weeks ago. The war’s effect on oil markets has been direct: Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel in early March before easing slightly when ceasefire talks began. Jet fuel has not followed that easing. It has continued climbing, and the airlines absorbing those costs have reached the point where passing them to passengers and cutting routes is no longer a choice but a necessity.

Which Airlines Are Cutting Flights and by How Much

In Europe, the cuts are significant and specific. Lufthansa Group announced on April 21 that it is eliminating around 20,000 short-haul flights through October across its six hubs in Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Vienna, Brussels, and Rome, targeting unprofitable routes in response to surging fuel costs. The move is expected to save more than 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel. Lufthansa said passengers will retain access to its long-haul network and that initial adjustments will be in place by May. KLM canceled 80 return flights from Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport, describing those routes as “no longer financially viable to operate” due to rising kerosene costs.

Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline, said it is considering reducing routes. CEO Michael O’Leary told Sky News that jet fuel supply could be at risk if the conflict continues. “We don’t expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June,” he said. Scandinavian Airlines cut approximately 1,000 flights in April, primarily on short-haul Nordic routes. Switzerland’s Edelweiss Air canceled flights to Denver and Seattle and reduced frequency to Las Vegas, citing declining demand and rising fuel prices. Aer Lingus made adjustments to 2% of its schedule, with the Irish Independent previously reporting that over 500 flights were being cut.

In Asia, the picture is similarly strained. AirAsia cut 10% of its flights and raised fares, with CEO Bo Lingam stating at an April 6 briefing that ticket prices had risen 30% to 40% overall and that the fuel surcharge had increased by up to 20%. Lingam described the situation as the airline’s most serious challenge, noting that jet fuel had risen from $90 per barrel before the war to $200 per barrel. Vietnam Airlines suspended seven domestic routes beginning April 1 and said it planned to cut flight volume by 10% to 20% per month over the next financial quarter if fuel prices remain at current levels. Air New Zealand announced it would cut approximately 1,100 flights, or about 5% of its capacity, at the start of May.

What American Airlines Are Doing and What It Means for Your Ticket Price

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby addressed the situation directly in a March memo to staff, stating the airline would cut flights over the next two quarters. “In the short term, that means tactically pruning flying that’s temporarily unprofitable in the face of high oil prices,” Kirby said. He also put the financial scale of the problem in concrete terms: “If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11 billion in annual expense just for jet fuel. For perspective, in United’s best year ever, we made less than $5 billion.” United planned to cancel off-peak flights and red-eyes as part of those adjustments.

Delta Air Lines has not announced broad flight cuts tied to fuel prices, in part because it owns an oil refinery in Pennsylvania that has provided a buffer during the crisis. “It’s not going to cover the crack entirely, but gives us a fairly significant hedge,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said at a March JP Morgan conference. Delta is cutting its seasonal Los Angeles to Anchorage route this summer, telling Business Insider it “adjusts its schedule to align with customer demand.” Air Canada announced it will suspend certain domestic, transborder, and international routes starting in late May, stating directly that “jet fuel prices have doubled since the start of the Iran conflict, affecting some lower profitability routes and flights which now are no longer economically feasible.”

For passengers buying tickets now, the surcharges being added by international carriers are translating into meaningful price increases on specific routes. Cathay Pacific raised its fuel surcharges by 34% from April 1, with the long-haul surcharge reaching approximately $200 per ticket. Air France and KLM announced that round-trip economy fares on long-haul flights would rise by 50 euros, or roughly $57, for tickets issued from March 11 onward. Air India introduced a three-phase fuel surcharge rollout, with flights to North America seeing surcharges rise from $150 to $200. SAS told Swedish business newspaper Dagens Industri that average short-haul fares would rise around $50, while transatlantic flights would be nearly $290 higher on average.

The Bigger Picture Behind the Flight Cuts and What Comes Next

The geographic disruption caused by the conflict is compounding the fuel cost problem in ways that are not immediately obvious to travelers checking flight prices. The Gulf region contains some of the world’s busiest aviation hubs, connecting passengers between Europe, Asia, and Oceania through major transit points. When the conflict forced airlines to reroute away from Gulf airspace in late February, demand for direct flights between Asia and Europe surged. That combination of reduced capacity and increased demand for alternative routes is pushing prices higher independently of fuel costs, creating two separate upward pressures on the same ticket price.

The ceasefire talks that began in April caused Brent crude to dip back below $100 a barrel, offering some relief to oil markets. Jet fuel has not responded with the same speed. The International Air Transport Association’s data shows it remains near $200 a barrel, and airlines that plan schedules months in advance cannot wait for day-to-day price movements to stabilize before making decisions about May and June capacity. The cuts being announced now are based on projections of where fuel costs will be in the coming weeks, and those projections remain deeply uncertain while the conflict’s resolution stays unresolved.

Cirium’s revised forecast, shifting from expected growth to a possible 3% capacity decline, is the number that most clearly frames what is happening to global aviation. Airlines do not cut 20,000 flights or cancel routes to Denver and Seattle because of temporary inconvenience. They do it when the math on those routes no longer works and there is no clear timeline for when it will work again. American travelers planning summer trips abroad are making decisions in an environment where the route they book today may not exist by the time they try to fly it. Checking airline announcements regularly and purchasing refundable or flexible fares has moved from optional to genuinely advisable.