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A Google software engineer allegedly knew which celebrities would top the company’s most-searched list for 2025 months before anyone else, and he used that knowledge to place $2.7 million in bets on a prediction market platform. Michele Spagnuolo, a 36-year-old Italian citizen living in Switzerland, was presented before U.S. Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn in the Southern District of New York on charges that now carry a combined maximum sentence of 50 years in prison.
Spagnuolo, who used the name “AlphaRaccoon” on Polymarket, had worked at Google for over 12 years before federal prosecutors moved against him. He is charged with one count of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, one count of wire fraud, and one count of money laundering, arising from his scheme to misappropriate confidential information from his employer and convert it into gambling winnings on a crypto-based platform.
Spagnuolo correctly bet that the singer known as d4vd would be the most-searched person on Google in 2025. At the time he placed that bet, Polymarket assigned a near-zero probability to d4vd claiming the top spot. The gap between what the market believed and what Spagnuolo already knew was the foundation of the entire scheme.
This article was created with the assistance of AI and reviewed by our editorial team for accuracy and clarity.
Spagnuolo Risked $2.7 Million Between October and December 2025, Betting Against the Market with Near-Perfect Accuracy
Between October 15 and December 4, 2025, Spagnuolo used the AlphaRaccoon account to risk approximately $2,754,092 on markets related to Google’s internal information. The bets were placed on “Yes” or “No” shares tied to whether specific public figures would rank among Google’s most-searched names of the year. His accuracy drew immediate attention from those watching the platform closely.
His specific wagers covered a wide cast of names. Spagnuolo placed $937,688 on the “No” side of whether Bianca Censori would be the top-searched person, $613,587 against Pope Leo XIV, and $509,149 against Donald Trump claiming the number-one spot. Each of those bets won. The breadth and precision of the winning positions raised red flags inside online communities tracking Polymarket activity.
Online communities on Discord and X began speculating that AlphaRaccoon was a Google insider. Shortly after, the AlphaRaccoon username was removed from the account, reverting it to an alphanumeric wallet address. The deletion came too late. The FBI had already begun building its case from blockchain records, platform documents, and cryptocurrency transaction data.
The FBI Traced AlphaRaccoon to Spagnuolo Through Blockchain Logs, Crypto Wallets, and an Italian Government ID
Spagnuolo had access to Google’s internal data systems, including an internal software tool that provided him with access to confidential, nonpublic data. That software tool bore a banner that stated, in part, “Google Confidential” in red text. Spagnuolo certified his understanding of various Google confidentiality and ethics policies. Accessing the tool was not itself a violation. Using its data to place winning bets was.
The FBI traced the funds after AlphaRaccoon moved $5 million in USDC.e from their Polymarket account to a wallet, then through a swapping service and a privacy tool. Some of those funds ultimately reached a payment processor account in Italy, opened by someone using Michele Spagnuolo’s government identification card. The blockchain trail that Spagnuolo may have believed was anonymous turned out to be the clearest evidence against him.
After Google publicly announced its Year in Search results on December 4, 2025, Spagnuolo’s AlphaRaccoon Polymarket account collected approximately $1.2 million in USDC.e winnings. The Department of Justice and the CFTC both filed separate complaints the same day, signaling that regulators viewed the case as a landmark test of how insider trading rules apply to prediction markets.
Google Confirms the Tool Was Open to All Employees. Prosecutors Say That Made the Breach Worse
A Google spokesperson said in a statement: “We’re working with law enforcement on their investigation. The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies. We’ve placed the employee on leave and will take the appropriate action.” The admission clarified that Spagnuolo’s access was routine. His use of that access was not.
U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton stated: “Today’s charges reinforce a decades-old message: corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information to turn a profit in our markets. Insider trading compromises the integrity of our markets, and the American people want this greed-driven conduct investigated and prosecuted.” The FBI echoed that framing, describing the case as a direct betrayal of employer trust for personal financial gain.
This case marks the second arrest this year tied to Polymarket insider trading. A U.S. special forces soldier, Gannon Van Dyke, pleaded not guilty to making fraudulent bets about the raid that removed Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, allegedly netting over $400,000. Spagnuolo’s case, with its $2.7 million staked and a $1.2 million profit extracted from a platform built on public uncertainty, sets a more consequential precedent: that prediction markets are now a front line for federal fraud enforcement, and that the blockchain receipts never disappear.