Oil Hits $100 a Barrel, but Trump Calls It a ‘Very Small Price to Pay’ for American Security

Oil prices crossed into triple digits for the first time since 2022, a stark sign of how the Iran war is throttling global supplies and raising costs for consumers worldwide. The numbers are hard to ignore. It began as a targeted military operation, but now has reached into the wallets of everyday Americans. The question is no longer just about geopolitics. It is about how much the public is willing to pay, literally and figuratively, for a war they never voted on.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, briefly neared $120 a barrel in early trade before settling around $104, while WTI, the U.S. benchmark, soared past $101 in early March. These are not just market statistics. They represent the cascading cost of a war that has disrupted one of the world’s most critical energy arteries. Every dollar added to a barrel eventually finds its way to the gas station down the street, and Americans are already feeling it.

President Trump addressed the spike on Truth Social, writing: “Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!” The framing was defiant. But with global markets rattled and gas prices climbing fast, not everyone is convinced the trade-off is as simple as the president suggests.

How We Got Here

In the days immediately following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, traffic came to a near-halt through the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically passes. Initially, traders believed markets could absorb a brief disruption. That calculation has since changed, and the ripple effects are now hitting consumers, financial markets, and energy-dependent nations simultaneously.

Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, three of OPEC’s biggest producers, have cut production amid an accumulating backlog of barrels with nowhere to go due to the effective closure of the waterway. Iran has also been blamed for attacks on energy facilities across the Gulf, including in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

The continued closure of the strait has prompted Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain to stop production in some fields, because there is nowhere to put the oil those fields would produce. Analysts at Kpler have been direct about what would actually reverse the crisis: “The only thing that could really turn this around is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.” Until that happens, the pressure on global prices shows no sign of letting up, and that has serious implications for ordinary Americans at the pump.

Dollars at the Pump

Average U.S. regular gasoline prices shot up from roughly $3 per gallon before the strikes to $3.45 on Sunday, according to AAA tracking, with more increases looming. That 50-cent jump in under two weeks is the kind of number that resonates far beyond financial news. It shows up in grocery delivery costs, school commutes, and small business margins. For many Americans, energy prices are the clearest economic signal they experience.

Patrick de Haan, petroleum analyst for GasBuddy, said that if oil remains above $100, gasoline is likely to hit a $4 national average this week. Even if prices stabilize at a lower level, gasoline prices would likely continue to climb by several cents. Diesel prices, meanwhile, have seen even more dramatic hikes, rising by nearly 90 cents in one week.

Trump made affordability a central plank of his 2024 campaign. In his State of the Union address, he boasted about falling gas prices, claiming gasoline was below $2.30 a gallon in most states and as low as $1.85 in Iowa. But that was just weeks ago. The gap between that campaign promise and today’s reality is growing by the day, and it sets up a political tension the administration will need to manage carefully as the conflict stretches on.

Can Prices Come Back Down?

The Trump administration is maintaining that the price spike is manageable and temporary. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN on Sunday: “In the worst case, this is a weeks, this is not a months thing.” He added that the market is experiencing “a little bit of fear premium,” but insisted the world is not short of oil or natural gas. The administration’s bet is that a decisive outcome against Iran’s nuclear program will bring relief faster than the market currently expects.

But analysts are more cautious. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to target energy facilities across the region in retaliation, warning that oil could soar to $200 a barrel if the U.S. and Israel “continue this game.” Separately, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned that all of the region’s producers could soon be forced to halt production, and that prices could hit $150 a barrel.

While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is enormously disruptive, it would also be quick to reverse. Once reopened, oil flows could resume as long as the necessary infrastructure remains intact. But if infrastructure is seriously damaged in oil-rich Gulf countries, it could take much longer for production to normalize even after missile strikes stop. For now, the administration is asking Americans to absorb higher prices in service of a larger strategic goal. Whether the public accepts that trade-off may ultimately shape how this war, and its economic fallout, is remembered.