Your 2027 Medicare Premiums May Be Changing More Than You Expect

Medicare officials have released their first detailed look at what Medicare Advantage and Part D coverage will cost in 2027, and the national averages initially appear encouraging. Medicare Advantage premiums are projected to decline, while the average stand-alone Part D premium is expected to increase by less than $1 per month. But averages do not tell the whole story, and some beneficiaries could experience much larger changes depending on their specific plan, drug coverage, and available options where they live.

Medicare Advantage Premiums Are Expected to Fall

The weighted average monthly premium across Medicare Advantage plans is projected to fall from $14.37 in 2026 to $12 in 2027, a decline of approximately 16.5%. CMS also expects supplemental benefits such as dental, hearing, and vision coverage to remain relatively stable overall. However, these are national averages, so the premium and benefits attached to an individual person’s plan may move differently.

Most Medicare Advantage Members Should Still Have Plenty of Choices

CMS expects more than 99% of Medicare beneficiaries to have access to at least one Medicare Advantage plan in 2027, while 97% should have 10 or more options available. The total number of plans nationwide is projected to remain relatively stable, moving from 5,553 in 2026 to approximately 5,532 in 2027. About eight in 10 Medicare Advantage beneficiaries are also expected to have the option of remaining in their current plan with the same or a lower premium.

Stand-Alone Part D Premiums Are Barely Moving on Average

For beneficiaries with stand-alone prescription drug coverage, CMS projects an average monthly Part D premium of $36 in 2027, up from $35.09 in 2026. That increase of less than $1 is substantially smaller than some observers anticipated after CMS announced that a temporary premium stabilization demonstration would end after 2026. The national base beneficiary premium, which is used in calculating plan-specific basic premiums rather than representing what everyone actually pays, is $41.33 for 2027.

Some People Could Still Face Much Bigger Premium Increases

The relatively small national increase does not mean every Part D enrollee will pay only a few cents more. KFF’s analysis of the newly released 2027 plans found a mixed picture, with modest increases for many people who stay in their current stand-alone plan but potentially much steeper increases for others. That makes checking the actual 2027 premium listed in a plan’s Annual Notice of Change much more useful than relying on the nationwide $36 average.

Prescription Drug Plan Choices Are Shrinking

Beneficiaries may also notice fewer stand-alone prescription drug plans to choose from. KFF found that the average beneficiary will have nine stand-alone Part D plans available in 2027, down from 11 in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year that the average number of options has declined. Fewer choices do not automatically mean worse coverage, but they make it particularly important to compare the remaining plans rather than assuming last year’s option is still the best fit.

Your Premium Isn’t the Only Number That Could Change

A low monthly premium can look attractive, but experts caution that insurers can adjust other parts of their coverage as they manage costs. Changes could include higher cost sharing for certain prescriptions or differences in which drugs appear on a plan’s formulary, while provider and pharmacy networks can also matter depending on the type of coverage. Beneficiaries should therefore compare total expected costs and coverage rather than choosing a plan based solely on its monthly premium.

Part D’s Deductible and Out-of-Pocket Limit Are Rising

The standard Part D benefit itself will also have higher dollar thresholds in 2027. The defined standard deductible rises from $615 in 2026 to $700 in 2027, while the annual out-of-pocket threshold increases from $2,100 to $2,400. Those figures provide another reason beneficiaries who regularly use prescription medications should look beyond the advertised monthly premium when estimating what their coverage could actually cost over the full year.

October 15 Is an Important Date for Medicare Beneficiaries

Medicare’s annual Open Enrollment period runs from October 15 through December 7, 2026, giving beneficiaries an opportunity to compare coverage that takes effect January 1, 2027. Insurers were required to notify enrollees by September 30 about changes involving premiums, prescription coverage, and provider networks, so beneficiaries should already be receiving information about what their current plan will look like next year. People who are satisfied with their coverage generally do not need to re-enroll, but reviewing the changes before deciding to stay can prevent surprises later.

The National Numbers Look Stable, but Your Own Plan Matters More

The broad outlook for 2027 is more stable than some Medicare beneficiaries may have expected, with lower average Medicare Advantage premiums and only a small average increase for stand-alone Part D coverage. Yet those headline numbers can conceal substantial differences among individual plans, including premiums, deductibles, covered medications, cost sharing, and available choices. Before Open Enrollment ends December 7, checking the details of a current plan against other available options could be one of the most important steps beneficiaries take to understand what Medicare will actually cost them in 2027.